After seeing that three more Labour MPs announced they were standing down I thought I’d review the situation in my area.When I say my area, I mean the areas of the newspapers that I write for – Leicestershire, Derbyshire, Nottinghamshire and north Staffordshire.
When I started my job two years ago there were 28 Labour MPs out of a total of 40.
Eight of those have announced they are standing down – Alan Simpson, Paddy Tipping, Bob Laxton, Mark Todd, Tom Levitt, Patricia Hewitt, David Taylor (who passed away recently) and Liz Blackman.
I strongly suspect a further two, Geoff Hoon and Alan Meale, may also stand down soon.
That makes ten, about a third of the original figure, which will be replaced.
Another group of six, which includes two ministers, are in seats that are wobbly to varying degrees.
With the weakest majority first, they are: Andy Reed (1,996), David Kidney (2121), Nick Palmer (2,296), Charlotte Atkins (2,438), Vernon Coaker (3,811) and Judy Mallaber (5,275).
If we say it is probable that those with a majority of less than 3,000 could lose their seat it would mean four more MPs being replaced.From the original 28 Labour MPs half would be replaced, either by a new Labour candidate or an opposition MP.
I reckon Nick Palmer will be an interesting one, he's put a lot of effort into constituency work and it remains to be seen whether that can counter national trends.
ReplyDeleteI reckon Coaker's toast and Nottm South will be close too I think.