Changing shape of midlands Labour

After seeing that three more Labour MPs announced they were standing down I thought I’d review the situation in my area.

When I say my area, I mean the areas of the newspapers that I write for – Leicestershire, Derbyshire, Nottinghamshire and north Staffordshire.

When I started my job two years ago there were 28 Labour MPs out of a total of 40.

Eight of those have announced they are standing down – Alan Simpson, Paddy Tipping, Bob Laxton, Mark Todd, Tom Levitt, Patricia Hewitt, David Taylor (who passed away recently) and Liz Blackman.

I strongly suspect a further two, Geoff Hoon and Alan Meale, may also stand down soon.

That makes ten, about a third of the original figure, which will be replaced.

Another group of six, which includes two ministers, are in seats that are wobbly to varying degrees.

With the weakest majority first, they are: Andy Reed (1,996), David Kidney (2121), Nick Palmer (2,296), Charlotte Atkins (2,438), Vernon Coaker (3,811) and Judy Mallaber (5,275).

If we say it is probable that those with a majority of less than 3,000 could lose their seat it would mean four more MPs being replaced.

From the original 28 Labour MPs half would be replaced, either by a new Labour candidate or an opposition MP.

Real questions please

The Prime Minister seemed to get stuck in a rut on his first answer of PMQs today.

Like an old, scratched piece of vinyl that refuses to move on he repeated the words “real help” no less than eight times in a matter of seconds.

The mantra was in response to a question – about today’s business aid package – from former-whip Liz Blackman that was so shamelessly set up even the Erewash MP herself looked embarrassed.

I’d hoped Blackman’s first PMQ since rejoining the backbenches might be meatier, but she obviously still has her eye on future opportunities.

Cameron stood up and said: “Planted question, copied policy.”

He must have been peeved because he said it even before giving thanks for the soldiers that had died in Afghanistan.

The first PMQs in 2009 also offered up further evidence of an imminent return to the shadow cabinet for Ken Clarke.

In the to and fro Cameron had attacked the Government’s 2.5% VAT cut, which Brown then responded by saying that the Rushcliffe MP had supported it.

The Conservative leader pulled out a piece of paper and performed a carefully planned answer which amounted to a defence of Clarke.

Such forethought must mean the Tory team has been anticipating the lines of attack the former Chancellor’s comeback will invoke.

Where the hell is Airwash?

It’s been so long since we heard from Erewash MP Liz Blackman in the House of Commons that I’d forgotten what she sounded like.

On Wednesday the MP seconded the Loyal Address – a statement of the Commons’ “gratitude” for the Queen’s speech.

Even she admitted it had been a while since she last spoke and decided it would be a good idea to remind people where she came from.

“My constituency is pronounced ‘Erreywash’, not ‘Airwash’, and certainly not ‘Earwash’, and it is found between Nottingham and Derby,” said the former whip.

It was of course that position in the whip’s office that has prevented her from speaking out in recent times – the idea is that if it’s your job to enforce the party line then you can’t have an opinion of your own.

The way the whip system works is a little archaic and bizarre and something MPs, whips or not, just know. It’s a bit like that unnaturally slow, buttock-clenching walk that everyone in Westminster performs during state ceremonies.

Those close to the top of Labour’s chain of command tell Lobbydog that Blackman’s loyalty is highly valued and that she is an effective operator – a shoe-in for a Government position next time something comes up.

But it’s easy to be loyal when you have an excuse not to say anything publicly.

Now that Blackman has the freedom to sing the people of Erewash should expect her to make up for lost time.

Lobbydog wants to see this ‘effective operator’ holding her own Government to account – the question is whether she’ll be prepared to put her neck on the line and risk future promotion.

Loyal Liz

Erewash MP Liz Blackman has been given the honour of seconding the Loyal Address on Wednesday.

After the Queen's address in the House of Lords the MPs file back down to the Commons where one MP gets the job of moving the Loyal Address - the Commons' acceptance of the Queen's Speech.

Then another MP, in this case Blackman, has to second it - which basically means she gets to give a speech about her constituency and (probably) how it has benefited from Government policy over the years.

It's considered an honour to be chosen for the task and Blackman’s selection highlights the favour she is still held in with the powers that be.

Among senior Labour officials it is almost a given that Blackman will be offered a Government position at the next reshuffle.